Biogênico contra fóssil: Nas grandes fontes fixas do estado, metade do CO₂ vem da cana

Cerejo, Lucas Nakamura

No. 091 Energy · biomass Biogenic carbon 3/4

Biogenic versus fossil

In the state’s large fixed sources, half the CO₂ comes from sugarcane

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Map of São Paulo with circles proportional to the 2024 CO₂ from each municipality’s large fixed sources, adding ethanol vats and the burning of natural gas, fuel oil and coke, coloured by biogenic share: from purple, almost all fossil, to dark green, almost all biogenic. The greens cover the interior, in the north and west; the purples cluster in Greater São Paulo, Cubatão, Campinas and the Paraíba Valley. Callouts point to Cubatão, with 738 kt of fossil CO₂, Guaíra, with 310 kt, all from the vats, and Piracicaba, 34% biogenic. In the panel, bars compare the vats, the possible biogas, fossil fixed sources and all the state’s fossil energy, 77 million t. — Fig. 091 São Paulo State (SP) EPSG:4674 Source: SEMIL (SP), ANP, IPCC (2006), IPCC (2005), EPE, IBGE

The gas leaving an ethanol vat is almost 100% CO₂; a combustion stack carries 3% to 15%. That is why mills are among the easiest sources to capture. In 2024, São Paulo’s vats released about 10.1 million t of biogenic CO₂. Natural gas burnt by industry, cogeneration and power plants, fuel oil and coke added up to 9.3 million t of fossil CO₂, on the SEMIL Energy Yearbook and IPCC factors. In these large fixed sources, 52% of the CO₂ comes from sugarcane. The map splits: across the cane-growing interior, 116 municipalities have more biogenic than fossil CO₂; fossil CO₂ concentrates in the capital (850,000 t), Cubatão (738,000), Santa Gertrudes, Paulínia and Jacareí. In Piracicaba the two mix: 34% is biogenic. The fossil figure here is a floor. Third plate of the collection “Biogenic carbon”.

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At a glance

Layers

municipios polygon 645 municipalities: fossil CO₂ (gas, oil, coke and all energy), vat CO₂ in 2024 and biogenic share (same GPKG as plate 089)

Metadata

Sources: SEMIL (SP) — Energy Yearbook by Municipality of São Paulo State 2025, base year 2024 (natural gas and oil product use by municipality) (2025)
ANP — Ethanol Producers Dynamic Panel (2024 output and capacity by mill) (2026)
IPCC (2006) — Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, vol. 2, ch. 1, Table 1.4 (stationary combustion CO₂ emission factors) (2006)
IPCC (2005) — Special Report on Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage, Table 2.1 (CO₂ concentration by source type) (2005)
EPE — Brazilian Energy Balance 2025 (net calorific values) (2025)
IBGE — Municipal Mesh 2025 (2025)
Extent: São Paulo State (SP)
CRS / Projection: SIRGAS 2000 (EPSG:4674)
EPSG:4674
Software: Node.js · d3-geo · QGIS
Method: Fossil CO₂ in 2024 by municipality: industrial, cogeneration and power-generation natural gas use and fuel oil and petroleum coke use (SEMIL Energy Yearbook), times the BEN net calorific value and the IPCC 2006 emission factor; biogenic CO₂ in 2024: ethanol fermentation estimated as in plate 089; biogenic share = biogenic ÷ (biogenic + fossil).
Version: v1.0.0
Licence: CC BY 4.0
DOI: being registered on Zenodo

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The map without a frame, with legend, scale, reference system and credit written on it: ready for papers, lectures and slides. In two versions: with the basemap (neighbours and sea) or only the mapped area, on white.

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How to cite

Cerejo, L. N. (2026). Biogênico contra fóssil: nas grandes fontes fixas do estado, metade do CO₂ vem da cana [Biogenic versus fossil: In the state’s large fixed sources, half the CO₂ comes from sugarcane] (Version 1.0.0) [Data set]. Essencial. https://aikiesan.github.io/essencial-geo/en/maps/091-co2-biogenico-e-fossil-sp/

@dataset{cerejo2026_co2_biogenico_e_fossil_sp,
  author    = {Cerejo, Lucas Nakamura},
  title     = {Biogênico contra fóssil: Nas grandes fontes fixas do estado, metade do CO₂ vem da cana},
  year      = {2026},
  publisher = {Essencial},
  version   = {1.0.0},
  url       = {https://aikiesan.github.io/essencial-geo/en/maps/091-co2-biogenico-e-fossil-sp/},
  language  = {portuguese},
  note      = {English title: Biogenic versus fossil: In the state’s large fixed sources, half the CO₂ comes from sugarcane. Licence CC BY 4.0}
}

How to read this plate area, projection, scale, legend and source · 2 terms

1 Area: São Paulo State (SP) The area the plate covers. Outside it, neighbours and sea are drawn in grey, just for orientation.
2 Coordinates and projection: SIRGAS 2000 (EPSG:4674) The layers are in SIRGAS 2000; the drawing’s projection is written in the colophon at the foot of the panel.
3 Scale: Graphic scale bar in the panel The scale bar is true on the central meridian; away from it, measured distances vary a little.
4 Legend and layers: 1 layer in the GeoPackage · polygon Read the legend before the map: it tells you whether a colour is a rate or a class, and whether a circle is a total.
5 Sources: SEMIL (SP) (2025); ANP (2026); IPCC (2006) (2006); IPCC (2005) (2005); EPE (2025); IBGE (2025) Every figure comes from a public source, with its year. The data sheet gives each one’s address.

Terms on this plate

Biogas: The gas from the airless breakdown (anaerobic digestion) of organic waste: manure, vinasse, sewage sludge, rubbish. It is 50% to 70% methane; the rest is mostly CO₂.
Biogenic CO₂: CO₂ from recently grown biomass, such as that from ethanol fermentation and biogas upgrading: it returns to the air what the plant took shortly before. It can be captured and used.

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Full record and citation

Method notes · No. 091

Biogenic and fossil CO₂ in São Paulo’s large fixed sources

Português · English

Plate No. 091, the third of four in the collection Biogenic carbon: how much of the state’s concentrated CO₂ comes from sugarcane, and how much from burning fossil fuel in fixed sources.

What the files contain

dados/sp_carbono_municipios.csv: this plate’s fields are co2_fermentacao_2024_t, co2_fossil_gas_t, co2_fossil_oleo_t, co2_fossil_coque_t, co2_fossil_estacionario_t (the sum of the three), co2_fossil_energia_t (CO₂ from all energy, from the Yearbook’s Table 9) and pct_biogenico_grandes, empty where there is neither a vat nor a fixed fossil source.
sp_carbono_biogenico.gpkg.zip (in the carbono-sp-2026 release): in the municipios layer, the pct_biogenico and co2_fossil_estacionario styles.

Method

Fossil use: from the Energy Yearbook by Municipality 2025 (base year 2024), natural gas for the industrial, cogeneration and power-generation sectors (Table 4, in m³) and fuel oil and petroleum coke (oil products table, in kg). Residential, commercial and vehicle gas is left out: these are small, scattered sources.
Factors: natural gas at 8,800 kcal/m³, fuel oil at 9,590 kcal/kg and coke at 8,390 kcal/kg (net calorific values from BEN 2025), times 56,100, 77,400 and 97,500 kg of CO₂ per TJ (IPCC 2006, vol. 2, Table 1.4): 2.067 kg of CO₂ per m³ of gas, 3.108 kg per kg of oil and 3.425 kg per kg of coke.
Biogenic: fermentation CO₂ in 2024, estimated as in plate 089, with that year’s output (13.7 billion litres).
Biogenic share: biogenic ÷ (biogenic + fixed fossil), in the 248 municipalities with at least one of the two. Statewide, 10.1 ÷ (10.1 + 9.3) = 52.1%.
Purity: the IPCC (2005, Table 2.1) gives about 100% CO₂ in bioethanol fermentation gas, against about 3% to 15% in combustion flue gases.
Check: the municipal natural gas total matches the state row in the Yearbook’s Table 3 (4.78 billion m³), and CO₂ from all energy matches Table 7 (77.4 million t).

Data downloaded

SEMIL, Energy Yearbook by Municipality of São Paulo State 2025, base year 2024 (PDF), linked from https://semil.sp.gov.br/anuario-de-energeticos-por-municipios-do-estado-de-sao-paulo/: https://smastr16.blob.core.windows.net/home/2026/03/Anuario-de-Energeticos-por-Municipios-do-Estado-de-Sao-Paulo-2025-ano-base-2024-1.pdf, downloaded on 18/10/2026; the tables were read from the PDF’s text.
ANP, pb-da-etanol.zip (see plate 089), downloaded on 18/10/2026.

Limitations

The fossil figure is a floor, and the biogenic share a ceiling. The Yearbook sees fuel sold in each municipality; refineries’ own use (Paulínia, Cubatão, São José dos Campos, Mauá), mineral coal and coke in steelmaking, and process CO₂ from cement and lime calcination, which does not come from fuel, are all left out.
CO₂ from burning bagasse in the mills’ boilers, also biogenic, is not included: only fermentation CO₂, which is the concentrated stream.
Fermentation is estimated, not measured (see plate 089), and each municipality’s point is its interior point, not the plant.
Municipalities are the Yearbook’s smallest unit; one large factory and many small ones look the same.

View this map’s folder on GitHub